Hurricanes of July and August

storms20160715 15 July  2016 is the first Hurricane month of 2016.  This year the first storms of the year in the Eastern Pacific have formed but they have so far all weakened.   Accuweather is predicting 14 named storms, seven hurricanes (3 major and 2 mexian landfalls).  Nobody is coming out and saying it,  but the overall situation for Hawaii is trending towards a relatively mild hurricane season.    (Graphic source: weather underground).

Blas  – cloud remants bring moisture and high humidity to HI around 14 July 16
Celia – 7/15 weakening tropical depresion   22º  142º
Darby – 7/15/July  Darby forms – 7/22 Darby still a TS and ETA on BI of 20W tonight- Sat. with a forecast track right on the chain.

Factors for Hawaii:

  1. La Niña : cooler ocean waters are a negative factor for tropical storm development and strength. The cooling la nina forecast is persistence through August, September and October.  Critical SS Temp: 80°.
  2. Wind shear is forecast to be present in the E Pacific hurricane zone –  probably refers to the subtropical jet which is a factor in breaking up hurricanes in the Pacific.

Crappy WX of July

7/18 Celia produces SE winds, rain and flood adv on Oa and Kauai 6/18
7/18 –Darby impact forecast 23-24 timeframe as a TD with a forecast track (7/18) just N of BI on Friday.

AUGUST 2016
14 August – the last named storm was Javier which affected Mexico.  Howard fizzled but it’s cloud field brought heavy rain and wind of spotty TS strength. Ivette tracked south and brought some increased moisture and wind but otherwise a non-event.

Nobody is talking about it but what seems to be happening is that the current large scale la nina  and wind shear regime have suppressed hurricane activity in the central pacific for the first half of August.  14 August there are no storms of note, with two weak disturbances out there at 132 and 137W.  Neither will become hurricanes. This also means that we won’t see storm type weather for at least a week – so any rain we get (for example while camping on the 19-21st!) will be trade showers or upper trough type stuff – not necessarily great dry wx but better than tropical cyclones!

 

 

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